The Return of the Soviet Union?

[Darth_Rob]

Russia has been making some pretty bold moves lately. As I brought up in the randomness thread, the Russians have implanted a flag on the North Pole, making a claim for its resources. You can read that article here.

 

Now today I saw thisarticle, which states that Russia has been sending fighter jets over Alaska, and that U.S. and Canadian forces have attempted to escort them out several times. However, the Russians leave before they are engaged.

 

Based on these two events, I think that Russia is causing trouble. First they claim Santa's home, and then they buzz through U.S. airspace. Who do they think they are???

[budious]

National Conception Day FTW!... I love commies!

[tacoJoemeru]

Posted: December 7, 2000

 

Tad out of date...

 

But yes, the Ruskies do seem to be back. I'd say the most troubling bit is their resuming of Strategic bomber patrols.

 

Once.

Twice.

Three times.

 

WOLVERINES!

[Darth_Rob]

Posted: December 7, 2000

 

Tad out of date...

 

What is that all about?

[budious]

That is the posted date of your link... a bit out of date

 

The Russians now how higher ambitions than American airspace, they now seek to host the first arctic sea floor national conception day!!!

[JediHunter]

Didn't Putin also recently (like in the past few months) state that whenever the Russian Media mentions the U.S. that instead of printing America of U.S. they have to refer to us as "the enemy".. I could've sworn I heard that..

[Darth_Rob]

Hmmm...I dont know how I did that. Here is a more recent event.

[Mad78]

I doubt the Russians would want to get to much on the bad side of you Yanks. They can't afford it. Russia wasn't yet fully recovered from communism and its governement is as corrupt as my old computer's Hard drive. That is a not a situation which encourages people to get into a conflict.

[Eagle]

You are absolute right, Mad!

 

The russian leadership feels the weakness of the US, which has failed in Afghanistan and Iraq, and want to point out that they are still a power on which you can count with or maybe even want to fill out that vacuum. Nearly surrounded by NATO-States, it´s just that easy to tell your people that we still are their enemies. This situation gives me bad memories, not just of one of our prefered movies, but also of the german history of the 1920ths and -30ths. If he will stay in power, democracie in russia has absolute failed and it´ll also no good sign for the so called "free World".

[Defender_16]

You guys just realised we're in the Second Cold War? Thought I'd said something about that towards the end of August.

(That or I might have forgotten.)

[Jahled]

You guys just realised we're in the Second Cold War? Thought I'd said something about that towards the end of August.

(That or I might have forgotten.)

 

Err, no we're not, matey

 

I had a long a detailed reply I tried to post earlier, but the post crashed, and I can't be arsed to type it all out again. It more or less pointed out that the former slaves of communist Moscow are now members of NATO, and in a conventianal war Russia would be slaughtered.

[Darth_Rob]

Well, its sort of like North Korea, where they act extremely hostile, without a chance of actually achieving any type of military victory.

[Mad78]

Yes but the North Korean president isn't very clever. He bases the survival of the country on its presence in the media.

[Defender_16]

Eh? What happened to my Uber long post?

[BadSamaritan]

First off, I do not like Putin. He seems like a cretin to me. So don't get me wrong, I think he should be removed from power before he does anything stupid.

 

However, I think it's good that Russia is willing to show the world that "Hey, we still have an military you know." Ever since the fall of their last government, the russian military had fallen into quite the state of disrepair. Their navy sat in drydock the greater majority of the time, and from what I understand, their Air Force was in pretty rough shape. Some of their bombers are still the old Prop-planes, which doesn't say much.

 

But these days, with the spike in oil prices, Russia finally has the cash it has lacked to begin flexing what little muscle it still has left. The newest versions of the MiG fighter, while not up to taking down a F-22, is still an impressive piece of hardware. And with their current modernization of the Tu-160, their Air Force will be up to tackling quite the opponent with 5 years.

 

(In all reality, I know little about their Navy or Army. I hear mixed reports ranging from 'laughingstock' to 'quasi-reliable' on both depending on who you ask. Someone else can talk about that.)

 

Anyways....

 

I highly doubt Russia is doing any of this to make themselves look aggressive. More than likely, they are just trying to show the world that they do still have a military, and that they are still a world power. Don't look for them to pick a fight any time soon, but watch for them to flex their muscle in world events a bit more.

 

 

 

 

 

Thats it from me. Back to lurking.

[SOCL]

Second Cold War? Russia planting flags in strange, useless places? Dear God, how could I possibly have missed the impending doom?!

 

 

 

Oh, that's right, because it's rubbish. Jahled summarized it quite well, and simply put the Russians cannot and would not have the ability to sustain any sort of conventional war against the combined strength of the EU and USA, not to mention that NATO would likely pledge three dollars and the UN send them nasty memo.

 

I don't like Putin--not in the least; the man seems to actually be disillusioned and possibly utterly insane, much more so than Saddam Hussein in my personal opinion. Even so, to the international community I believe he is mostly harmless, a tiny dog barking to be let out of the yard or off his leash, but the moment he's let out, what then? He'll have no idea what to do since he's never planned past barking and thinking about attacking. At that point, he'll probably run back to his yard and close the gate behind him; that, or he'll attack and get his nose kick, and then go running, whimpering home with a bloody muzzle. That's not to say I believe in a martial response--on the contrary--but I do believe that if Putin is stupid enough to start something militarily, he'll quickly regret it.

 

Besides, let Russia have its fun. Every nation deserves to have its day to stretch and flex without the USA and EU pouncing on them. Flying fighters over Alaska--Alaska, people!--is hardly a threat. I'm sure the whole way in the fighters are being monitored by our missile defense system, which, thanks to our paranoid war-president and his party, are safely functional and secure--aside from that B-52 that flew nukes from the northern part of the nation to the south without anyone knowing... All things considered, any attempt at hostilities will likely be met with a barrage of surface-to-air missiles.

[Defender_16]

Russia by herself isn't all that much of a threat.

 

Hypothetical situation.

Eastern Coalition vs NATO

Since most countries involved in this Eastern coalition are essentially dictatorships short term unpopularity among their people due to Economic problems wouldn't worry the governments. (Dictatorships care about 1 thing; maintaining their government whatever the cost.)

 

China Dumps their surplus of $1 Trillion US Dollars onto the world market, US economy collapses. China, Russia, Iran (+Venezuela) enforce an oil embargo against the Western world strangling their supplies within a very short period of time. This by itself would collapse most of the western economy. Since so much of the US Strateigic oil reserves have been opened to the public over the past few years in efforts to keep gas prices down, the military would be severly lacking needed fuel.

 

Military options after that are up to how NATO responds. The US has always said that they will never use Nukes first. Against this coaltion NATO now has nearly no chance of winning a straight up conventional war. The US has hardly any production capability left that could be converted to war time use like in WW2 because most of it is in China now.

 

 

This is the sort of way the next World War would operate. Who ends up using nukes first? The East isnt going to, they can win just with tanks and man power.

 

Jane's take on this axis as of 2005

 

Shanghai Cooperation Organization - Wiki

 

I've been studying this ever since I came back from my trip to China. North Korea is unimportant overall, it's just a distraction to be used to keep the west busy at some point.

 

 

Source Watch. Cant say I've ever heard of this site before but they do list their sources.

Edited October 4, 2007 by Defender_16

[JediHunter]

I have to agree SOCL, I think Russia is just barking.. wanting its attention and trying to say hey look.. im still a big dog too.. whether it is or not.. but even so I think Putin, along with some current Russians in power and citizens still have the effects from the soviet brainwashing left they are thinking "We were strong during the Cold War, now look at us!" I think they blame the U.S. and Democracy for making them a country that is struggling, even though it was really Communism that did it and it stayed "mighty" only during the Cold War only in propeganda or perhaps even practice due to the competition with the U.S...

summed up.. i think Russia has always been struggling since around (if not before) stalin.. just the people were tricked into thinking they were doing great.. then again I'm not a history buff.. so i could be wrong..

Edited October 4, 2007 by JediHunter

[DarthTex]

China Dumps their surplus of $1 Trillion US Dollars onto the world market, US economy collapses. China, Russia, Iran (+Venezuela) enforce an oil embargo against the Western world strangling their supplies within a very short period of time.

As soon as China "dumps their surplus cash" how are they going to keep the hundreds of millions of workers employed? If the US economy collapses, there go their jobs. Which would make things ripe for a "new" revolution in China as the un-employed with nothing better to do, ravage their own government.

 

Also, OPEC will step in to take up any slack from an oil embargo (unless there is some kind of big payoff for them). Although the price would skyrocket, supply would be crunched but not "cout off" completely. They'll be thinking with $ in their eyes.

 

All out war will probably never happen, unless some really stupid twat does something (my opinion: China invading Taiwan. That will be a huge mess).

 

Just my two bits worth.

[Defender_16]

summed up.. i think Russia has always been struggling since around (if not before) stalin.. just the people were tricked into thinking they were doing great.. then again I'm not a history buff.. so i could be wrong.. but

 

Russia seems to have a history of one grand leader no matter what. There were the Tsar's then the likes of Stalin and noe Putin. There was this little bump in the 1990's with 'Democracy' but now they're back on course with what the Russians know.

 

 

(my opinion: China invading Taiwan. That will be a huge mess).

(They'll wait until something happens in Korea and then just let the North Fall while they take Taiwan. West wont be able to do a thing.)

[Eagle]

The russian leadership´s acting allways depends on if there are some upcoming elections. Like Jelzin did a couple of times (remember the war against Serbia at 1999), Putin is showing some muscles to be elected as chancelor or whatever. It looks like that you can do any crap in Russia for which you will be hated by the people, but if you tickle other states the russians will love their president. That´s poor in my eyes.

[SOCL]

No offense, Defender, but what your spouting depends on a great many ifs and coincidences. All of these things happening are once are no necessarily going to happen in a domino effect and likely won't. Worst case scenarios, like the one you described, are historically unlikely--in truth, I cannot think of a single time in history where someone has come up with a worst-case scenario (as a contemporary of the events, not in hindsight) and it has actually happened. What you are describing verges on conspiracy-theory.

 

Where you got your info about Eastern Europe, D16, is also rather confusing. Most Eastern European countries not only dislike Russia, but utterly hate them. Just speaking to many of these people, such as from Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine, they seem to want nothing to do with Russia and in general like the Western democracies and especially the USA, foreign policies and politics aside. LaForge may be able to speak more to the point on this, himself living in Eastern Europe (i.e. Hungary). Why the old Eastern bloc would want to ally with Russia is beyond me. In the Cold War they weren't so much allied as forced to ally with the USSR under the terms of the Warsaw Pact. What choice do you actually have when the entire Soviet military is sitting near, on, or just inside your borders asking you "nicely" to be their ally. It's hard to say no at gun-point. Further, it seems likely that the old Eastern block countries would more likely ally with a Western-friendly nation being harassed by Russia, such as in the example of Georgia, who have NATO military advisers helping train their armed forces.

 

And what's this about Eastern bloc dictatorships? Perhaps at the end of the Cold War, but lets remember it's been almost twenty years since then and most of those nations have reformed in many ways towards democracy. The examples of Miloschevik in Serbia (remember Kosovo?) and the Romanian revolution are exceptions, not typical, and even in those cases the dictatorships did not last particularly long, whether it be because of external pressures or internal strife.

 

As for NATO and nuclear weapons, I remember past Presidents say they refuse to use nukes first, but the current Administration has made it quite clear that their policies are different and that nuclear weapons have always been an option. Granted, popular opinion would drop like a ton of bricks held up by a paper tower (it made sense in my mind...), but it's still clear that it is an option. And in any event, if Russia did use nukes first, it is highly unlikely they'd even come close to the core of the USA and the EU, Alaska and some of the more extreme Eastern European nations aside. The weapons technology of Russia on average is still Soviet-based, and recall that the newest Soviet weapons come from the late 1980s, an era before smart bombs and extensive use of electronic warfare. The weapon systems employed by the Western nations, but comparison, are much more powerful and readily capable of deterring any Russian incursions, despite the stuff the more hawkish politicians might tell you about out-dated technology. Yes, the technology is not particular new, but it's still head and shoulders above the rest. In truth, any nuclear warhead used in a conventional manner would be destroyed within moments, either shot down by a anti-missile missile or otherwise deterred (there are some cool things my intel analyst buddy tells me about over drinks that I won't share).

 

As for China... The Chinese government is far to smart to get involved in anything that will piss off the Western nations to the point of open hostilities. Sure, they might push the bar and test the limits every so often, but they would never do anything to open themselves up to an attack. People spout stuff about the PRC supporting North Korea, but the fact is, as long as North Korea does things that only affect the people and matters within their borders, China won't flinch, but the moment North Korea, say, bombs Japan or South Korea, the Chinese will condemn them and though likely not go so far as to support armed conflict with North Korea will be smart enough not to assist as they did in the 1950's. North Korea will either collapse on its own or make one final drive, and then collapse. What we have to fear from North Korea is what will happen to the three Army brigades we have stationed there, the inevitable loss of life of our allies (namely South Korean) and our won intervention. But the ROK (South Korean army) is more than prepared to stop and bloody the nose of any North Korean invasion force. Yes, it will be horrible and bloody, but the combined forces of multi-national forces along the DMZ, South Korean forces, American forces ready to respond in Japan, Hawaii, and Alaska, not to mention Japanese forces, Taiwanese forces, and the rest of the world will more than annihilate the North Korean government. It's truly only a matter of when.

 

Gentlemen, we have nothing to fear but fear itself.

 

I am not worried.

[Eagle]

I´m not sure, though I haven´t read Def´s posted links, but I guess he was rather refering to some CIS-States, which are still sovietlike dictatorships, like fe. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Usbekistan. Some of them may be allied to us, but nevertheless they´ve no real democracy.

[Jahled]

I´m not sure, though I haven´t read Def´s posted links, but I guess he was rather

 

referring to some

 

CIS-States, which are still soviet like dictatorships, like fe. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Some of them may be allied to us, but nevertheless they´ve no real democracy.

 

This, along with the existence of western friendly eastern European states, such as Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states, etc; Russia is surrounded by either pro-western nations, or states who's economic interests, such as the central Asian republics, are overly reliant on ties

with the West. Russia's own newly found economic prosperity is from trade with the west, now it's economy is stabilizing following the collapse of communism, and all the economic mismanagement that that was. Traditionally, Russia has always been a strong regional power; so now it's economy is stabilizing, it's recent antics, are nothing more than reminding all it's neighbours it is a strong regional power.

 

But like China, why would Russia want to risk these newly found economic prosperity by entering a new cold war. It's only recovering because of it's co-operation with the global economy and having economic investment into it, and new customers for it's exports, such as the EU. Who is going to invest in a country in that climate, when you might go to war with it? And that works both ways. The amount of Russian super rich investing in London alone is unbelievable. Despite a few misgivings about it's young democracy, it has as a nation thrown off the communist notion a population has to be bullied and suppressed for it's economy to (almost) work. Putin isn't a dictator, he's certainly extremely authoritarian, but what do you expect after the turmoil; following the collapse of the Marxist economy? In Russia he has wide spread popular support for stabilizing the inevitable mess after Communism collapsed, and is seen as a no nonsense strong man. He can't run for President again, and is currently suggesting he runs for Prime Minister. He's a politician. Believe it not Russians want stuff in life like the rest of us, popular music, fashion, ipods, the Internet, etc, not a rather drab existence calling people 'comrade,' and being told what to think by the 'party.'

 

As for their Military capability, ^what SOCL said above. It is largely two decades behind the West's military arsenal, and still is reliant on a conscript army. Use Wikipedia to get an idea of the completely overwhelming strength it would face if it entertained a new cold war. Despite wrecking it's economy, it wouldn't have any allies. It's old allies are now members of of NATO or waiting to join it, and all share a historical hatred for the years the Red Army imposed it's will upon them. That and the fact the EU would act as one against any perceived threat from Russia. Nations like Germany would simply re-militarize.

 

This new cold war of yours is never going to happen, your hypothetical eastern axis or whatever you're on about would also simply never come into being; because China would simply want to sit back and enjoy the diversion of economic investment away from the new 'bad guy.' And visa versa. China is only the China of today because of economic investment and the fact they've realised when you open the doors and welcome it from without and let it bubble from within, you start to see the seeds of prosperity. China is not going to do much more than what Russia recently has either, because all it would do is make Japan re-arm, and aligned with it's western allies would face a military opposition it wouldn't be able to overcome, by any means.

 

And as for your average Joe in Russia, who do you honestly think they want to feel part of and aligned to culturally, Iran or the prosperous West?

[Defender_16]

Yeah I know the whole thing borders on conspiracy theory, and it IS a worst case scenario. You know the old saying though hope for the best, plan for the worst.

 

Where you got your info about Eastern Europe, D16, is also rather confusing. Most Eastern European countries not only dislike Russia, but utterly hate them.

 

I dont recall saying anything about Eastern European countries. I did refer to the (Far) EAST however.

 

Yeah, most East European countries are entering into the EU. I just grouped them in with those and generally ignored them consentrating on Asia or the East.